I had every intention of posting the next part of "Another Life" for Valentine's Day. I also had every intention of posting this earlier this week. Life, however, has been so insane that I have not been able to turn on my computer for the past week. My sleep patterns are so off that I'm starting to see things that aren't there. Ugh.
So...Oscar predicitons.
Best Picture:
"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"
"Lincoln"
"Les Miserables"
"Life of Pi"
"Amour"
"Django Unchained"
"Argo"
Early on, I suspected this would be another 2009, where a late-released Katherine Bigelow movie would suddenly sweep all the awards because the Academy went overboard in hyping it. Then came the “controversies” (translation: people figured out the suggestion that Bin Laden was captured as a result of “enhanced interrogation” was a big fat, dangerous lie). “Les Miserables” would have a chance in any other year (especially if it had been produced by the guy who did “Chicago” and the fluff piece that undeservedly beat “Saving Private Ryan”), but it’s unlikely this year. “Lincoln” may have been the front runner up until the Academy made the gross error of not nominating Ben Affleck for best director. He’s won everything else so far, so it’s probably safe to bet on the Academy giving him this one as a half-ass apology (and I’m sure they’ll award him best director for something far inferior down the road because that’s just the way they seem to operate).
Best Supporting Actor:
Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Alan Arkin, "Argo"
Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
I would be flipping a coin on this one as it seems like one of the most toss-up categories this year if not for two things. One: “Silver Linings Playbook” is the first movie in years to be nominated in all four acting categories so it will probably win ONE of them and this one is most likely. And two: this is the first time DeNiro has been nominated in two decades and the Academy loves records like that. Beyond that, it’s easy to justify because Christoph just won, like, two years ago and supporting categories usually go to actors who steal the show from leads which…yeah…nobody steals Daniel Day Lewis’ thunder.
Best Supporting Actress:
Sally Field, "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables"
Let’s forget there are any other nominees in this category because it really doesn’t matter. It will come down to these two. Period. Everyone seems pretty certain of Anne’s victory, but Sally is probably more deserving in this particular case. On the other hand, she already has two Oscars. On the OTHER hand, she was only nominated twice so she has a record of winning everything she’s nominated for. Might as well just flip a coin on this one (I tried this best two out of three and it came up “Sally” all three times).
Best Director:
David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"
Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln"
Michael Haneke, "Amour"
Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
This was the category that made the Best Picture category interesting this year. Best Director goes hand in hand with Best Picture 9 times out of 10. Obviously, since Ben wasn’t nominated, this will be that tenth time. Spielberg is the obvious choice of what is left, and he probably would have won picture too if it wasn’t for the sudden surge behind “Argo”.
Best Actor:
Daniel Day Lewis, "Lincoln"
Let’s not pretend we don’t all know this is going to happen. They could probably shave a little time off the telecast by giving it to him right now. And rightly so. He is an amazing actor who can deliver great performances in even the dullest of movies (not that he does very many of those since he’s so selective). I haven’t seen the movie, but I’m impressed just from what I’ve seen in snippets and trailers. Nobody else stood a chance. Although I am entertained by the knowledge that Will Tippin has an Oscar nomination now. Maybe he'll catch up with Jennifer at the post party?
Best Actress:
Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"
Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"
Quvenzhané Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
This one could very well come down to a coin flip and whoever wins will probably have won by a margin of maybe three votes. Jessica was the front runner before the Academy started running away from anything having to do with TortureGate 2012. Naomi was briefly the front runner and Jennifer is apparently now considered the front runner which I find baffling. But since this is the Academy we’re talking about…it will likely come down to the other two: the oldest nominee ever and the youngest nominee ever. And from what I’ve heard of their performances, they are probably the most deserving anyway. Age before beauty: Emmanuelle will likely win. But if they decide to surprise me by not conforming to their usual formula (and that’s a big if), it will probably be Naomi.
Best Original Screenplay:
"Zero Dark Thirty"
"Django Unchained"
"Moonrise Kingdom"
"Amour"
"Flight"
Again, controversy will kill “Zero Dark Thirty’s” chances. What makes “Flight” good is Denzel Washington and some pretty spectacular aerial photography and crash sequences. And “Moonrise Kingdom”? I barely remember this movie coming out in theaters and it isn’t nominated anywhere else. Why is it even here if not to pad the category? The Academy seems to love Quentin, so “Django” is a possibility but “Amour” is probably more likely.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Argo"
"Life of Pi"
"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Erm…I would say “Lincoln” because I’m pretty sure “Team of Rivals” did not adapt to a screenplay very easily. But maybe “Silver Linings” because anything that produces Oscar nominated performances probably has a great script.
Best Animated Feature:
"Brave"
“Frankenweenie”
“ParaNorman”
“The Pirates! Band of Misfits”
“Wreck-It Ralph”
I really want this one to go to “Brave”. Is the story original? Not really. But it’s solid, the visuals are beautiful and Merida is the best princess that has ever fallen out of the Disney machine (a genuinely strong, admirable female). But nobody else seems sure it will win, so some of these others must be stronger contenders than I thought. I’m still pulling for “Brave”.
Best Foreign Feature:
"Amour"
"A Royal Affair"
"Kon-Tiki"
"No"
"War Witch"
If your foreign film has been nominated in other categories and has a chance of winning one of them, it’s a pretty safe bet you will win this category. “Amour”.
Best Visual Effects:
"Life of Pi"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
"The Avengers"
"Prometheus"
"Snow White and the Huntsman"
“Lord of the Rings” won this category three times already. Which should probably give “The Hobbit” the advantage, but…none of those effects are original now. I haven’t seen anything of “Life of Pi” other than the previews, but even from that I can tell that it deserves this award, if nothing else. If for no other reason than one of the main characters is a (well generated) computer animated tiger.
Best Cinematography:
"Skyfall"
"Anna Karenina"
"Django Unchained"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
Okay, maybe it will win this one too.
Best Costume Design:
"Anna Karenina"
"Les Miserables"
"Lincoln"
"Mirror Mirror"
"Snow White and the Huntsman"
I love how this category always features awful movies just because they happen to have elaborate costumes. I’m going with “Anna Karenina” just because this would be the only category it would win (the two Snow White movies at least have a shot at some Razzies).
Best Documentary Feature:
"Searching for Sugar Man"
"How to Survive a Plague"
"The Gatekeepers"
"5 Broken Cameras"
"The Invisible War"
Hmm...soldier violence against women or AIDS? It's possible one of the other ones will win - I don't know much about them. But Invisible War has already forced a change in the way the military operates. Isn't the point of documentaries that they shine a light on things people normally don't know or care about and force a positive change? Wasn't this the category that had a movie about dolphins being butchered? Yeah, we'll go with "War".
Best Film Editing:
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Life of Pi"
"Argo"
"Zero Dark Thirty"
Eine, mienie, "Argo".
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
"Hitchcock"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
"Les Miserables"
Orcs usually trump regular people, even if they are made up to look like real people from history. At least when those historical people are in movies that weren’t nominated for anything else and didn’t do very well in general.
Best Music (Original Score):
"Anna Karenina"
"Argo"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Skyfall"
“Life of Pi” would probably be my second guess for Original Song, so I kind of want to go with it here. But John Williams is consistently good, so “Lincoln” is a possibility. Maybe. No, considering the last three winners “Pi” is more likely.
Best Music (Original Song):
"Before My Time" from "Chasing Ice"
"Everybody Needs A Best Friend" from "Ted"
"Pi's Lullaby" from "Life of Pi"
"Skyfall" from "Skyfall"
"Suddenly" from "Les Misérables"
For the first time in years, this category is actually competitive. And one of the songs has actually been getting regular radio play! Mainstream hits are usually favored here, so we’ll go with “Skyfall”. Though I am looking forward to seeing one of the Best Actor nominees and the awards host singing their songs. At least I hope they do. Please tell me Hugh will be singing. That may be the main reason I tune in.
Best Production Design:
"Anna Karenina"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
"Les Misérables"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
Revolutionary France or Civil War America? Let's go with "Lincoln" just because it's on more of an epic scale.
Best Short Film, Animated:
"Adam and Dog"
"Fresh Guacamole"
"Head over Heels"
"Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'"
"Paperman"
I've only seen one of these: the Simpsons one. Somehow I don't think the Academy is likely to get sentimental over a short produced by a team that's been working a regular television series for over two decades. Beyond that, I have no idea. So I'm applying the same strategy I did with the Supporting Actress category. The coin flip results are "Paperman": 2, "Adam and Dog": 1.
Best Sound Editing:
"Argo"
"Django Unchained"
"Life of Pi"
"Skyfall"
"Zero Dark Thirty"
This one usually goes to an action movie because they have to juggle things like explosions and punches and gunshots and whatever crazy bullshit is going on and make it sound clean. So "Skyfall" or "Django" is what I'm saying. Let's go with "Django" because it hasn't been winning anything else.
Best Sound Mixing:
"Argo"
"Les Misérables"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Skyfall"
Okay, well, that shoots my prediction on the last one. Don't the sound categories usually go to the same movie? So either both of these will go to Bond or "Life of Pi" or they will split this year and this one will go to "Les Mis" just because they threw in singing with all those explosions and gunshots.
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