Countdown to Oscars

[diandrahollman]

I've been wary of coming back to the Oscars ever since they proved to me two years ago that they can NOT be trusted to recognize good movies. However, when I heard that Brad Pitt was one of the top contenders for best actor AND Billy Crystal was coming back as host I resigned myself to the idea of watching this year. I'm still wary and it's entirely possible I'll walk away disgusted and swear (again) that I'm never coming back. But for Brad and Billy, I'll give it a shot. So here are my predictions, although I've only seen a handful of these movies and I might be a little rusty since I haven't watched the Oscars since 2009.

Best Picture

• "The Artist"
• "The Descendants"
• "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
• "Hugo"
• "Midnight In Paris"
• "The Help"
• "Moneyball"
• "War Horse"
• "The Tree of Life"

One of the reasons I decided it was safe to watch the Oscars again this year was that this category appeared to be fairly evenly matched. Which is to say, no matter who won there wouldn’t be a horrible upset of the “obvious” choice reminiscent of the whole “Shakespeare in Love” disaster. That being said, the obvious choice here is “The Artist”. Not because it’s a good movie (though it might be – I haven’t seen it yet), but because it has been pointed out that the last time a silent film won best picture, pictures with sound were a new and novel thing. The Academy is more about making statements and setting trivial records than they are about anything else. That may sound cynical, but I’ve seen them do it too many times to consider it a coincidence anymore.

Best Actor

• George Clooney, "The Descendants"
• Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"
• Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"

Let’s just eliminate the obvious, shall we? There’s a slight chance Jean could win, but everybody knows this category is going to boil down to George VS Brad. I would love for it to be Brad just because this movie seems to have proven once and for all that he CAN act, damnit, which still seems to surprise people for some reason.  (Also, when are they going to get another chance to give him an award? Have you seen the movies he’s got coming out this next year? Their next chance is going to be in 2014). Whereas George already has an Oscar (for a supporting role). I guess what I’m trying to say is it will most likely be George again, but if they surprise me and it’s Brad I will kiss my television.

Best Actress

• Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
• Viola Davis, "The Help"
• Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"
• Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"

Again, eliminating the obvious “we needed five nominees so let’s just PICK SOMEBODY” choice. What’s left is actually a close race as far as Academy history is concerned. A woman playing a man, two women playing well known prominent people well and one playing a black woman in Mississippi in the 60s. Popular opinion is that this boils down to Viola VS Meryl. The obvious choice should be Meryl, but she already has two Oscars, which is why the Academy tends to ignore her. On the other hand, they might finally give in and give it to her because she actually DESERVES it, damnit.

Best Director

• Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
• Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
• Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"
• Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"
• Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"

This category goes to whoever directed the movie that won best picture 9 times out of 10. Scorsese could be a possibility, but they already gave him that “long time coming” award for that dumb undercover cop movie. For that matter, Allen could be a possibility, but…I’m going with the 9 out of 10 odds.

Best Supporting Actor

• Kenneth Branagh, "My Week With Marilyn"
• Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"
• Nick Nolte, "Warrior"
• Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"
• Max Von Sydow, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"

I have not seen any of these movies. A week ago I would have said Max Von Sydow just because nobody seems able to shut up about that damn movie and how great his character was in it. Then I saw this description: “[Christopher Plummer plays] Hal Fields, a 75-year-old widower who belatedly embraces his homosexuality, even while battling a terminal illness.” If that doesn’t scream “GIVE ME AN OSCAR”, I don’t know what does. They could probably shave a few minutes from the telecast run time by just giving it to him now and dropping the pretense of anybody else having a prayer of a chance at this one.

Best Supporting Actress

• Octavia Spencer, "The Help"

We all know this is going to happen, right? I mean, this is partly why I would question Viola Davis being the frontrunner for lead actress. Octavia steals the show from her. As it should be, because Minnie is the heart and soul of “The Help”.

Best Original Screenplay

• Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
• JC Chandor, "Margin Call"
• Asghar Farhadi, "A Separation"
• Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
• Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, "Bridesmaids"

The fact that everybody was raving about “Margin Call” when it came out despite the fact that it looks like a talking head movie with not a lot happening justifies it being nominated here, if nowhere else. Not that it has a chance. And no to “Bridesmaids”. Just…no. Not with those other choices up there, that can NOT happen. So of the ones we’re left with…does “Midnight in Paris” have a chance of winning anything else? It’ll probably get this one.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash, "The Descendants"
• John Logan, "Hugo"
• George Clooney, Grant Heslov, , "The Ides of March"
• Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian,  "Moneyball"
• Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughn, "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"

Hollywood seems to love Aaron Sorkin. Except they also seem completely enamored with “The Descendants” (and didn’t Sorkin win one of the screenplay categories last year?). So again, this is George VS Brad except this time TWO of George’s movies are nominated. Which could go either of two ways: either “Descendants” is the obvious shoe in, or the two will cancel each other out and “Moneyball” will win.

Best Animated Feature

• "A Cat In Paris"
• "Chico & Rita"
• "Kung Fu Panda 2"
• "Puss in Boots"
• "Rango"

I was under the impression that Rango tanked. Badly. How did it end up here? How did ANY of these movies end up here? And why are other people who predict these things saying “Rango” will win? Because it’s the only one that was nominated for a Golden Globe? Seriously, did they draw these nominees out of a hat? Ugh. I’ll just say “A Cat in Paris” will win. Just because. I don’t know.

Best Foreign Feature

• "Bullhead" (Belgium)
• "Footnote" (Israel)
• "In Darkness" (Poland)
• "Monsiuer Lazhar" (Canada)
• "A Separation" (Iran)

Tip: if the movie is nominated in other categories that most foreign films are not even considered in, there’s a good chance it’s going to dominate this category.

Best Art Direction

• "The Artist"
• "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"
• "Hugo"
• "Midnight in Paris"
• "War Horse"

Ooooo…can I just say it will go to a movie set in France? I’ll go with Hugo since it’s more elaborate and fantasy-dream-like.

Best Cinematography

• "The Artist"
• "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
• "Hugo"
• "The Tree of Life"
• "War Horse"

Oh dear God, “The Tree of Life” is actually going to win something, isn’t it? That or “War Horse” because it doesn’t seem to be the front runner for anything else (what does the Academy have against Steven Spielberg anyway?).

Best Costume Design

• "Anonymous"
• "The Artist"
• "Hugo"
• "Jane Eyre"
• "W.E."

This is always the one category where movies that can’t win anywhere else have a fighting chance. Because the movie can be mediocre, as long as the costumes are so crazy and elaborate that the actors can barely move in them (or are at least practically unrecognizable buried in yards of taffeta). Which is why I would guess “Anonymous” is most likely. Maybe “Hugo”.  

Best Film Editing

• "The Artist"
• "The Descendants"
• "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
• "Hugo"
• "Moneyball"

Apparently this category tends to go along with Best Picture. I’m not sure who determined that. I would have said anyone having to edit something shot off of a Sorkin script would have their work cut out for them. But I guess I can see how editing a silent movie where several scenes are stolen by a dog would be headache inducing.

Best Make-Up

• "Albert Nobbs"
• "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"
• "The Iron Lady"

And like the costume category, this is often a category you can accurately predict by going with your knee jerk instinct after seeing a few screenshots. I’m going with “Albert” because while Harry Potter might seem an obvious choice, most of its effects require more than make up.

Best Original Score

• "The Adventures of Tintin" – John Williams
• "The Artist" – Ludovic Bource
• "Hugo" – Howard Shore
• "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" – Alberto Iglesias
• "War Horse" – John Williams

Wow. Two John Williams and one by the guy who did “Lord of the Rings”.  And the frontrunner is the guy for “The Artist”? Well, I guess since it’s the primary source of sound for the whole movie…

Best Original Song

• "Man or Muppet" from "The Muppets" Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
• "Real in Rio" from "Rio" Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown Lyric by Siedah Garrett

This category gets a little more pathetic every year and the Academy only has themselves and their ridiculously nitpicky rules to blame for that. I mean really, when the song that wins the Golden Globe is ineligible because it comes just a LITTLE too late in the credits, maybe you should consider reevaluating your requirements for eligibility. So obviously, this one is going to the Muppets.

Best Sound Editing

• "Drive"
• "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
• "Hugo"
• "Transformers: Dark of the Moon"
• "War Horse"

Eeny meeny miney “War Horse”.

Best Sound Mixing

• "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
• "Hugo"
• "Moneyball"
• "Transformers: Dark of the Moon"
• "War Horse"

The fact that “Moneyball” is in the mixing category and not the editing category makes it an interesting wildcard. It’s a possibility. Otherwise, this tends to go to whoever gets the editing category.

Best Visual Effects

• "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2"
• "Hugo"
• "Real Steel"
• "Rise of the Planet of the Apes"
• "Transformers: Dark of the Moon"

Harry Potter. Harry Potter. HarrypotterharrypotterharrypotterharrypotterHARRYPOTTER. But I must say I find it amusing that “Real Steel” was nominated for something. Even though it has no chance against the final film in a massive fantasy series that features a scene where everybody who has ever been in the series is fighting in a giant battle with trolls, elves, giant spiders and flying wraiths. It’s like five hours worth of “Lord of the Rings” compressed into five minutes. Okay, fine. I guess it could go to “Rise”, which I loved, but I would think the Academy would be allergic to the idea of giving an award to a “Planet of the Apes” prequel.

Comments

[evanesco75.livejournal.com]

So proud! A Pakistani woman won the Best Documentary Oscar! First time a Pakistani won, and that too a woman.

Ecstatic!

[diandrahollman.livejournal.com]

:)