My Emmy predictions...

[diandrahollman]

Since I did so well on my Oscar predictions, I decided why not try my hand at predicting the Emmy winners this Sunday? Yes, that was sarcasm. I was sure "Avatar" would win. Can you blame me? Anyway. This should be interesting because, unlike the Oscars, I haven't watched the Emmys in years. Mostly because I don't get the channels half the shows the voters nominate are on and I get bored watching a bunch of people I barely recognize from shows I've never seen give long winded thank you speeches. But I'll actually be watching this year, so I'll give it a shot. As you can see from my avatar, I may be a little biased, but I'll try not to let that affect my judgment.


Awards that have already been announced: 


Outstanding Guest Actor In A Comedy Series
Glee • Mike O'Malley
Glee • Neil Patrick Harris
Modern Family • Fred Willard
Nurse Jackie • Eli Wallach
30 Rock • Jon Hamm
30 Rock • Will Arnett

Well, gee. Neil Patrick Harris was nominated for a role in a comedy musical show? And he won? Shocker.


Outstanding Guest Actor In A Drama Series
The Closer • Beau Bridges
Damages • Ted Danson
Dexter • John Lithgow
The Good Wife • Alan Cumming
The Good Wife • Dylan Baker
Mad Men • Robert Morse
24 • Gregory Itzin

Itzin? Are you kidding me? I know he was really damn good when he did a guest stint on “24” back when the show still had some shreds of self respect, but really. For a show that was supposedly "snubbed" by the Emmys it sure was nominated for a bunch of random awards.


Outstanding Guest Actress In A Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory • Christine Baranski
Desperate Housewives • Kathryn Joosten
Glee • Kristin Chenoweth
Saturday Night Live • Tina Fey
Saturday Night Live • Betty White
30 Rock • Elaine Stritch
Two And A Half Men • Jane Lynch

Karen McClusky? Really? And I guess now I know why SNL is suddenly up for acting awards. Raise your hand if you *didn’t* see this one coming. Oh, put your hand down, you smart alec.


Outstanding Guest Actress In A Drama Series
Big Love • Mary Kay Place
Big Love • Sissy Spacek
The Cleaner • Shirley Jones
Damages • Lily Tomlin
Law & Order: Special Victims Unit • Ann-Margret
Lost • Elizabeth Mitchell

If you say so. Really, the only one in here I’ve seen is “Lost” and while Elizabeth is awesome I’m not really sure why she was nominated here. It seems like a last ditch effort to recognize her for a role she should probably have been recognized for three years ago. 
 

Outstanding Special Class Programs
ABC's LOST Presents: Mysteries Of The Universe - The Dharma Initiative
82nd Annual Academy Awards
Avatar: Enter The World Of Pandora (HBO First Look)
The Daily Show: Ask A Correspondent - The Meaning Of Life
30 Rock: Webisodes
63rd Annual Tony Awards
Vancouver 2010 Olympic Winter Games Opening Ceremony

Can we talk about the irony of “Avatar” being nominated in a category against the academy awards that totally snubbed it? HA! Unfortunately, this is a category that is usually won by an award show, and since my understanding was that this was the most boring Oscar telecast in recent memory a Tony upset isn’t all that surprising. Suck it, “Hurt Locker”. For the record, I have seen exactly one of the nominees (the first one, naturally, which was awesome).


Outstanding Stunt Coordination
Chuck
FlashForward
House
Human Target
24

FlashForward actually won something? Huh. Not much of a consolation prize. I would have guessed “Human Target”, but that’s just me. 

 
Outstanding Commercial
Anthem • Absolut
Coke Finals • Coca-Cola
Game • Mars Snack Food US/Snickers
Green Police • Audi
Human Chain • Nike
The Man Your Man Could Smell Like • Old Spice Body Wash

OH MY GOD, REALLY??? I never would have seen that coming! I’m so shocked! [/overblown sarcasm]

And the rest (my predictions in blue)...

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory • Jim Parsons
Curb Your Enthusiasm • Larry David
Glee • Matthew Morrison
Monk • Tony Shalhoub
The Office • Steve Carell
30 Rock • Alec Baldwin

Okay, so the way I see it the frontrunners on this one are Matthew from that new show that everyone has been yapping about for the past year or Tony for the final year playing a character he has won this award several times over for. The way people who know more than me see it: "Glee" doesn’t stand much chance of winning *anything* despite all the yapping and Tony’s strongest competition is Alec, who won just last year. I’m betting on Tony.


Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series
Breaking Bad • Bryan Cranston
Dexter • Michael C. Hall
Friday Night Lights • Kyle Chandler
House • Hugh Laurie
Lost • Matthew Fox
Mad Men • Jon Hamm

I’m probably biased but since I don’t have cable I could only judge the performances of three of these men and only two of those would be the actual performances they gave this past year (though I think I can safely bet the winner *won’t* be Kyle). I love Hugh Laurie and his impeccable sense of comedic timing but he’s been nominated before and will be nominated again and I’m sure he will eventually win. The fact that this is the first time Matthew has EVER been even NOMINATED seems like a gross oversight that I’m sincerely hoping is corrected. If the Emmy voters are as predictable as the Oscar voters they would probably give it to him knowing that they may never get a chance again. According to Entertainment Weekly, the frontrunner is…no one. The “industry insider” seems to think Hugh will win. But while Hugh has also been tragically ignored for several years running and that opening episode this year may have been excellent award fodder, the rest of the season was pretty much blah as far as Hugh’s role was concerned. At least it was blah in comparison to last year. And since I’ve spent WAY too much time talking circles around this one, I’ll just fall back on the rule I used to use for every award show, which is: if your character has cancer, dies tragically and/or spends half of their screen time crying, the odds of winning an award are in your favor. Matthew. But it will probably be Hugh and I'll grumble about how the Emmys are a year late in their recognitions just like the Oscars.


Outstanding Lead Actor In A Miniseries Or A Movie
A Dog Year • Jeff Bridges as Jon Katz
The Prisoner • Ian McKellen as Two
The Special Relationship • Michael Sheen as Tony Blair
The Special Relationship • Dennis Quaid as Bill Clinton
You Don't Know Jack • Al Pacino as Dr. Jack Kevorkian

I hear “The Prisoner” was excellent and, of course, Ian McKellan is always excellent but with the words “Al Pacino” and “Jack Kevorkian” in close proximity…yeah, that seems a more likely choice. Also, the reason this is the only “miniseries or movie” award that I’m even *trying* to predict is…I haven’t seen ANY of these movies. I didn’t even know some of them EXISTED. Apparently I like to keep clear lines between my movie watching and TV watching.


Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series
Glee • Lea Michele
The New Adventures Of Old Christine • Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Nurse Jackie • Edie Falco
Parks And Recreation • Amy Poehler
30 Rock • Tina Fey
United States Of Tara • Toni Collette

Tina Fey may be awesome but all the raving and ranting about Edie Falco seems to suggest her chances aren’t good this year.


Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series
The Closer • Kyra Sedgwick
Damages • Glenn Close
Friday Night Lights • Connie Britton
The Good Wife • Julianna Margulies
Law & Order: Special Victims Unit • Mariska Hargitay
Mad Men • January Jones

I think we all know Julianna has the best odds here.


Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series
Glee • Chris Colfer
How I Met Your Mother • Neil Patrick Harris
Modern Family • Jesse Tyler Ferguson
Modern Family • Eric Stonestreet
Modern Family • Ty Burrell
Two And A Half Men • Jon Cryer

If two nominees from the same program tend to split the vote, three certainly will, leaving everything else to come out ahead. Which basically leaves the first two and while “Glee” might be getting a lot of critic and public recognition…I have to go with Neil.


Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series
Breaking Bad • Aaron Paul
Damages • Martin Short
Lost • Terry O'Quinn
Lost • Michael Emerson
Mad Men • John Slattery
Men Of A Certain Age • Andre Braugher

Terry and Michael are powerhouses, but they’ve both won this award once already and they were both so good this past year that the only way I can see either of them winning is if they tied. More likely, they will split the vote and someone else will come out ahead. Who that someone else will be I have no idea because the buzz leading up to the Emmys is not as loud as the buzz leading up to the Oscars and the one prediction I’ve seen for this category says Andre Braugher will win, which…yeah, he’s good, but…what? If he’s the front runner I’d say Terry and/or Michael have a damn good chance. Terry probably more so because he was playing two characters who were basically polar opposites. Otherwise, I’ll go with the other show everyone is always yapping about and say Aaron.


Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series
Glee • Jane Lynch
Modern Family • Julie Bowen
Modern Family • Sofia Vergara
Saturday Night Live • Kristen Wiig
30 Rock • Jane Krakowski
Two And A Half Men • Holland Taylor

Did the committee get desperate for nominees halfway through this category? Since when has anyone from Saturday Night Live ever been nominated for acting? And I don’t recall Holland Taylor being in more than maybe two episodes this year. But let’s face it: anyone beyond Jane Lynch is just filler because the woman steals every scene she’s in in any show and that’s exactly the kind of acting that wins supporting categories.


Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series
Burn Notice • Sharon Gless
Damages • Rose Byrne
The Good Wife • Archie Panjabi
The Good Wife • Christine Baranski
Mad Men • Christina Hendricks
Mad Men • Elisabeth Moss

Since I’ve never watched any of these your guess is as good as mine. But Christine B. seems to be the favorite and I always liked her so I’ll go with it.


ALL “REALITY SHOW” CATEGORIES

The fact that these keep being given awards alongside scripted television seems ridiculous to me. Especially ridiculous when you consider that “Undercover Boss” is nominated in one of the categories which I was surprised to learn is still on because I thought it was a spectacular flop. I think that and the fact that I only watch ONE reality show (“Dancing with the Stars”) on an irregular basis exempts me from predicting these categories.


Outstanding Comedy Series
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Glee
Modern Family
Nurse Jackie
The Office
30 Rock

With all the push behind it, I think it would be a shock if “Modern Family” *didn’t* win.


Outstanding Drama Series
Breaking Bad
Dexter
The Good Wife
Lost
Mad Men
True Blood

How did “True Blood” get in here? Let’s just throw that one out as a possibility first of all. And, while we’re at it, “Dexter” seems really unlikely. Apparently “Breaking Bad” is not anyone’s favorite to win this category either. So what’s left? A show that has won the past two years in a row, a game changing epic that went out with a bang this year or the most talked about new show that everyone knows will win at least one category (best actress) on Emmy night unless the voters relish the idea of being buried under a flood of angry letters. Einny meeny miney.


Outstanding Miniseries
The Pacific
Return To Cranford (Masterpiece)

Why is this category even here? Why don’t they just give the award to “The Pacific” and save about five minutes of award show airtime?


Outstanding Variety, Music Or Comedy Series
The Colbert Report
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart
Real Time With Bill Maher
Saturday Night Live
The Tonight Show With Conan O'Brien

Colbert won last year, right? So the main contenders are probably Conan or Stewart. It *should* be Stewart because all signs point to him being the voice of a generation and damned if we don’t NEED his perspective in this political climate. Giving the award to Conan for the dozen or so episodes he hosted would make *quite* a statement, but it would also be like giving the finger to Jay Leno and NBC in general. So the question here is, how much of a statement are the Emmy voters willing to make?


Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
Glee
Modern Family
The Office
30 Rock • Anna Howard Shaw Day
30 Rock • Lee Marvin Vs. Derek Jeter

Hmm…since “Glee” is basically a bunch of musical numbers strung together (as far as I can tell anyway), I’ll go with “Modern Family”.


Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
Friday Night Lights
The Good Wife
Lost
Mad Men • Guy Walks Into An Advertising Agency
Mad Men • Shut The Door. Have A Seat.

Well, I think I can safely say “Lost” won’t win this one. Directing, yes, but the show wasn’t exactly known for its sparklingly clever dialogue. It’s a toss up between “Good Wife” and “Mad Men” and since the latter is nominated for two episodes…it’ll probably be one of them.


Outstanding Directing For A Comedy Series
Glee • Pilot - Director's Cut
Glee • Wheels
Modern Family • Pilot
Nurse Jackie • Pilot
30 Rock • I Do Do

I imagine directing people who are doing large choreographed routines is harder than anything these other people had to do, but I don’t know enough about the show to guess specifics.


Outstanding Directing For A Drama Series
Breaking Bad • One Minute
Dexter • The Getaway
Lost • The End
Mad Men • Guy Walks Into An Advertising Agency
Treme • Do You Know What It Means (Pilot)

I’ve never even heard of that last one. And unless there was something unusually difficult like a really complicated chase sequence in one of the other shows (entirely possible for all I know) I’d say “Lost” wins this one.